Football Betting - End-of-Season Games
Everybody loves a trier, especially when it comes to putting down your readies. There's nothing more galling for punters than to realise that the selection was 'not off' and that you've not even had a good run for the money.
Blanket television coverage ligaslot and the higher transparency of the betting exchanges have raised awareness of the 'non-trier' issue in horse racing, but football punters need to be on the guard too. It's clear that all is not well on the planet of football, by the recent match-fixing scandal in Germany involving referee Robert Hoyzer, ongoing investigations into some Italian results and irregular betting patterns on obscure European and international matches.
All very trying
However, my research suggests the 'non-trier' issue does rear its ugly head towards the end of the summer season, even in the major leagues. Most leagues are competitive enough to make sure they go right to the wire in the battles for championships, places in Europe and safety from relegation.
But, inevitably, some teams have nothing left to play for in the final weeks of the summer season, which will be where problems can arise.
The previous couple of weekends of a group season feature three forms of match:
1. Matches between two teams with nothing to play for.
2. Matches between two teams with something to play for.
3. Matches between one team with something to play for and one team with nothing to play for.
Out of focus
The commitment of either team cannot be taken for granted in the very first category, so probably the most sensible betting strategy towards the end of the summer season is to target on categories two and three.
Matches in the next category ought to be assessed utilizing your usual techniques. (Anybody who doesn't know needs to learn our football betting articles on inside-edge-mag.co.uk - Ed), but the very best betting opportunities often lie in category three, where there's https://www.ligaslot.top/ always the prospect of a 'non-trier' ;.
This isn't to declare that anything underhand takes place in these games, merely that a slight drop in focus by one team may make most of the difference in a competitive league including the English Premiership.
There could be many reasons for this drop in focus - such as the widely held view that some players are 'on the holidays' before the end of the season. It's equally likely that, given the demands of modern football, a new player who has been carrying an injury is going to be rested once his team has nothing left to play for, or that there could be some easing off in training sessions. Whatever the reasons, our results in the bottom of this informative article show a group with something to play for is more likely to win a fit against a group with nothing to play for.
Fight for survival
For example, the last five seasons of the English Premiership have produced a gain rate of 55% for teams with something to play for. That figure doesn't vary, regardless of if the team is in the very best six or underneath six.
It's the same story in other leagues, although win rate of relegation-threatened teams in such matches does tend to be slightly lower overall than that accomplished by teams close to the the surface of the table.
So, do these stats alone provide a good betting opportunity? The straightforward answer isn't any, but there are a few refining touches that can put these figures to good advantage.
How exactly to beat the odds
The bookmakers generally factor in the 'nothing to play for' syndrome when pricing up end-of-season matches, though several do slip through the net. If you're great at making your own personal book on matches, you are able to spot these matches - otherwise, you'll find it too difficult to create a profit backing blind on the teams with something to play for.
How, then, can we beat the odds? Well, a bit more delving into the statistics puts more flesh on the overall assumptions often made about end-of-season matches.
Starting at the very top, the late-season records of league champions are very revealing. There's clear evidence that, once a concept has been slot liga secured arithmetically, there's a widespread tendency for champions to take their foot off the gas. Last season, as an example, the Spanish and German champions were confirmed with two games to play - Valencia and Werder Bremen, the respective winners, then promptly lost their last two games.
That is far from an isolated example. In 2001, Manchester United lost their last three games, having run away with the title, though it has to be stated that they'd finished with four straight wins when in the same position the prior season.
A ton of profit
Generally, then, it's worth opposing already-crowned champions. Last season, in the leagues featured here, this process would have yielded a 24% profit to level stakes. If you had concentrated only on games where in fact the opposing team still had something to play for, the strike rate in opposing the champions could have been 100% and the profit a whopping 125% to level stakes.
Another factor could be when a lower-division side is chasing a landmark such as for example 100 points - which was the case with Wigan Athletic in the old Division Two in 2003, if they reached three figures with two wins and a draw, even though they were already champions.
Bottoming out
Overall, in the leagues analysed here, relegated teams have a 23% win rate once they're mathematically doomed - pretty close to the average expected from relegation-zone teams over the length of the season. In other words, they don't falter once all hope is gone.
Actually, relegated teams now have an amazingly good home record in the final weeks of the season. Normally, they manage a reasonably even split of wins, draws and losses at home and in none of the leagues does their number of home defeats outweigh the combined number of wins and draws - making relegated teams always worth a look on the Asian handicap at home, as they'll rarely, if, be quitting a start to their opponents.
Middle-of-the-table teams is a location to tread warily. While the stats show punters generally can rely on sides scrapping for top places or battling against relegation, this isn't the case with teams marooned in mid-table for the last few games of the summer season, with no incentive to move up and no anxiety about dropping down several places.
The ultimate word
In the leagues analysed here, the win rate of mid-table teams within their final games doesn't appear too bad, averaging 33%, which will be broadly in accordance with their overall seasonal record.
The picture isn't so rosy, however, when the figures are narrowed down seriously to games against teams with something still to play for. The win rate of safe mid-table teams dips to 26% and their loss rate goes as much as 49% (from 41% overall).
